
THE SIGNAL TO WATCH
Are landlords keeping more of the rent?
Rising rents are more convincing when concessions shrink too. Watch whether free rent and tenant improvement allowances decline as leases are signed. If asking rents rise while incentives remain generous, the recovery may look stronger on paper than it does in property cash flow.
INDUSTRIAL LEASING
01
Industrial leasing hits its strongest quarter since 2022
U.S. industrial leasing reached 202.6 million square feet in the third quarter, up 38.5% year over year, according to JLL’s newly released report. National vacancy fell to 6.8%, but performance diverged: large Class A warehouses tightened while older, smaller buildings lost occupancy.
So what: Industrial demand is recovering unevenly. Large modern warehouses are capturing more activity while older buildings continue to lose tenants, suggesting stronger leasing partly reflects demand shifting within the market. That split could give landlords of newer space more pricing power while keeping concessions elevated elsewhere, even as national vacancy improves.
OFFICE DEVELOPMENT
02
350 Park Avenue closes $3.3 billion construction loan and Citadel anchor lease
Vornado, an affiliate of Ken Griffin and Rudin closed their joint venture for Manhattan’s 350 Park Avenue, alongside a $3.3 billion construction loan and a 1.05 million-square-foot Citadel lease. Construction is underway on the approximately 1.9 million-square-foot tower, with roughly 850,000 square feet remaining available.
So what: Banks are willing to finance major office development when substantial tenant commitments support the project. This points to selective confidence in premium office demand, rather than a sector-wide reopening of construction credit. Successful new towers could also compete for tenants currently occupying existing buildings, redistributing demand without necessarily reducing overall vacancy.
VALUE-ADD FINANCING
03
Alta West refinances California campus after doubling leased occupancy
JLL arranged $49.75 million in three-year, floating-rate financing from Forbright Bank for Lakeview Innovation Center in Thousand Oaks. Alta West bought the approximately 275,000-square-foot office and R&D campus at 50% leased in September 2024; JLL now reports full leasing and more than 170% growth in net operating income.
So what: Improving property income can reopen financing options even when the broader office market remains challenged. This suggests some owners can rebuild value through leasing rather than relying on falling rates or rising market valuations. However, a fully leased campus still using floating-rate bridge debt shows that operating progress and permanent financing are separate milestones.
RETAIL INVESTMENT
04
PSP and Nuveen launch venture with $790 million in U.S. shopping centers
PSP Investments and Nuveen Real Estate announced a U.S. open-air shopping-center venture with an initial portfolio representing $790 million in acquisitions. The partnership has acquired 19 assets totaling approximately 3 million square feet across eight states, emphasizing grocery anchors, essential services and daily-needs retailers.
So what: Long-term institutional capital is targeting shopping centers built around recurring household spending. That adds buyer competition for grocery-anchored and essential-service properties, potentially supporting valuations even while financing remains expensive. The distinction matters: confidence in daily-needs retail does not automatically extend to centers dependent on discretionary purchases.
NET LEASE
05
Agree Realty acquires $309 million of properties at a 7.3% cap rate
Agree Realty reported approximately $308.6 million in third-quarter acquisitions across 68 retail properties, at a weighted-average 7.3% cap rate. Acquired leases averaged 14.5 years remaining, and investment-grade tenants represented approximately 52.1% of the acquired annualized base rent.
So what: Transactions are getting done at yields that can work for well-capitalized buyers without waiting for lower interest rates. Agree’s activity provides evidence of price discovery in long-term retail leases. It also highlights an advantage for buyers with efficient access to capital: the same property can support different bids depending on who is financing the purchase.
MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT
06
Bascom and Oberndorf buy San Jose apartments for $53.1 million
An Oberndorf Real Estate Management affiliate and The Bascom Group acquired Museum Park Apartments for $53.1 million. The 117-unit San Jose community was built in 2002, and the partnership plans phased renovations to apartments and common areas.
So what: The buyers are committing capital to improving existing housing rather than creating new supply. Renovation strategies depend on households being willing and able to pay more for upgraded units. If that demand holds, older communities can compete more effectively with newer buildings; if it weakens, renovation spending may outpace the additional income it produces.
WATCH NEXT
Friday’s preliminary U.S. business surveys will offer an early October read on activity. Watch new orders and prices charged together: stronger orders with easing prices would be encouraging; weaker orders with rising prices would leave businesses facing slower demand and continued cost pressure.

